Concerning the view the US economic system was in recession earlier this 12 months (e.g., this observer lower than a month in the past), the CFNAI has the next takes:
The three month transferring common of the CFNAI dropped beneath 0 (i.e., dropped beneath pattern progress) in Could and June. The notes for the CFNAI point out “Following a interval of financial enlargement, an growing probability of a recession has traditionally been related to a CFNAI-MA3 worth beneath –0.70.” The CFNAI-MA3 didn’t breach this threshold.
As for the indications from the variety of indicators falling or rising (i.e., a diffusion index), we now have the next image.
From the notes:
So, I (nonetheless) don’t see a recession in 2022H1.