Did the Yield Curve Predict a 2022H1 Recession?


Determine 1: Forecasted chance of recession from 10yr-3mo time period unfold (blue), from 10yr-2yr time period unfold (tan), 10yr-3mo time period unfold augmented by FCI, overseas time period unfold (inexperienced). All fashions estimated over 1986M01-2022M11. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Lilac shading denotes a hypothesized 2022H1 recession. Crimson dashed line at 50% chance. Supply: creator’s calculations, NBER.

Description of the probit fashions are contained on this submit. Notice the low estimated chances for recession ascribed to the interval of 2022H1, which runs counter to the assertion of reader Steven Kopits. A recession someday in 2023H2 is, alternatively, not implausible.



This entry was posted on by Menzie Chinn.