That is the sixth in a sequence of weblog posts addressing a report by Diego Escobari and Gary Hoover masking the 2019 presidential election in Bolivia. Their conclusions don’t maintain as much as scrutiny, as we observe in our report Nickels Earlier than Dimes. Right here, we broaden upon varied claims and conclusions that Escobari and Hoover make of their paper. Hyperlinks to previous posts: half one, half two, half three, half 4, and half 5.
Within the earlier publish, we noticed that the polling stations included within the TSE announcement weren’t consultant of the election, and so the necessary questions are: what had been the causes of the unrepresentativeness, and the way does this influence the late outcomes? We had beforehand proven that even having no data of the elements resulting in the counting of nickels earlier than dimes, we could forecast a Morales victory within the first spherical.
Earlier than we proceed, there may be an unlucky facet of Escobari and Hoover’s evaluation we should handle: they calculate get together vote shares in a nonsensical method. Whereas this doesn’t have a big impact on their estimates, it usually does matter to their dialogue of outcomes.
We’ve quick grounds for suspicion upon analyzing their reporting of “Distinction Mannequin” outcomes. The variety of observations (polling stations) within the evaluation is 34,529, so 26 polling stations are absent. It is because Escobari and Hoover study the get together votes (or variations) as a share of “Válidos En Acta”. Within the TSE logs, Válidos En Acta characterize the official transcription of the legitimate vote complete as recorded on the acta. Ideally, the “Votos Válidos” entry on the acta precisely displays the whole variety of legitimate votes solid in complete for all events (that’s, excluding blanks and nulls). In follow, nonetheless, jurors usually reported an incorrect quantity in that area on the acta. Typically jurors made arithmetic errors; generally jurors included clean and null votes within the complete.
Element from Picture of Acta 90383: Inclusion of clean and null votes in Válidos:
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Typically jurors left the area completely clean.
Element from Picture of Acta 35085: Lacking Válidos
Typically, the jurors left what seems to be the right sum, however observaciones on the acta had been seemingly unaccounted for within the official rely.
Picture for Acta 27427: Obvious mismatch between presidential votes and reported Válidos reconcilable by way of observaciones:
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On this case, the TSE acknowledged solely 67 legitimate votes although the signed statement signifies 127 legitimate votes only for Morales. One-hundred-seventy-six legitimate votes, as indicated En Acta, could be the right sum if the observations had been taken under consideration.
The necessary factor to acknowledge is that the area is included to help the jurors in checking their work, fairly than a authorized rely of the legitimate votes. Sadly, jurors didn’t all the time fastidiously comply with the directions, both failing to note or just failing to restore the discrepancy by making an observación. The place there remained a discrepancy between the written legitimate votes and the whole votes listed for every get together, it fell to the corresponding TED to formally reconcile the 2 within the official rely, utilizing the supplementary election supplies offered by the jurors.
Typically, the discrepancies had been resolved solely implicitly. Regardless, the authorized foundation for deciding the election is the sum of the formally acknowledged get together votes. There have been 6,137,671 legitimate votes acknowledged within the official outcomes, however the complete Válidos En Acta got here to six,137,778. Ultimately, Válidos En Acta had been reported as zero at 26 polling stations, but 22 of those stations reported legitimate votes for at the very least one get together.
Given the inconsistent reporting, there isn’t a justification for utilizing the Válidos En Acta instead of the official legitimate votes. Certainly, whereas the general distinction is small, it generates absurd outcomes for particular person actas. In a single case, the Válidos En Acta was transcribed incorrectly as “109” as an alternative of “189,” making it seem to Escobari and Hoover that Morales gained 153 % of the vote. Within the official outcomes, the TSE acknowledged a complete of 189 legitimate get together votes for president recorded on the acta. Although the “8” seems to be written a little bit humorous, it appears to be like, if something, like this was an misguided entry of “199” that was corrected to “189.” In that case, it may need been extra clear to make a remark fairly than full the “8” out of the “9,” however within the context of the acta, “189” is clearly right. Escobari and Hoover even erroneously cite this acta as considered one of seven “the place MAS votes exceed the whole variety of legitimate votes,” once they imply “the place MAS votes exceed the transcription of the entry.”
Element from TREP Picture for Acta 1579
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In sum, the test on the acta will not be the authorized foundation for figuring out the margin of victory, and results in nonsense outcomes, even casting unwarranted suspicion on the election. And though Escobari and Hoover used Válidos En Acta in computing get together vote shares on particular person actas, they acknowledged in Desk 1 that there have been 6,137,671 legitimate votes: the precise complete.
 The outcomes on the different 4 polling stations had been successfully annulled. Strictly talking, annulled outcomes set off a revote on the corresponding polling stations, but it surely was usually agreed that the results of the election wouldn’t be affected by a revote. The actas had been restored, however the outcomes zeroed out. A revote may need lowered Morales’s closing margin from 10.565 share factors to one thing near 10.563.