Under, EPI economists provide their preliminary insights on the roles report launched this morning, which confirmed 517,000 jobs added in January, the unemployment price hitting a historic low of three.4%, and wage progress slowing.
From EPI senior economist, Elise Gould (@eliselgould):
Learn the complete Twitter thread right here.
The labor market is off to a robust begin this 12 months with 517,000 jobs added in January, an unemployment price at a historic low of three.4%, and wage progress that continues to decelerate, slowing down to three.7% at an annualized price (right down to 4.4% progress over the past 12 months).
— Elise Gould (@eliselgould) February 3, 2023
Message to the Fed: Wage progress continues to decelerate regardless of the way it’s measured. These traits aren’t driving inflation. pic.twitter.com/94jmSRCWvR
— Elise Gould (@eliselgould) February 3, 2023
Not solely was job progress in January stronger than anticipated, the revisions had been bigger as nicely. After benchmarking in opposition to UI information, complete payroll employment for March 2022 was revised up by 568k jobs. Whole institution survey revisions elevated December 2022 jobs by 813k! pic.twitter.com/hqk3KyytlH
— Elise Gould (@eliselgould) February 3, 2023
From EPI president, Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz):
Learn the complete Twitter thread right here.
Necessary notice! I wouldn’t usually be joyful that wage progress is slowing, however the factor right here is that *inflation is slowing a lot sooner than wage progress is slowing.* Which means actual wages are rising, which is nice information (this wasn’t taking place in ’21 or the primary half of ’22). 2/
— Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz) February 3, 2023
People, over the interval of slowing nominal wage progress of the final 10 months, the labor market has added 365,000 jobs per thirty days on avg, and the unemployment price is right down to 50-year lows. It seems to be just like the economic system can have a delicate touchdown, if the Fed doesn’t stand in the way in which. 4/
— Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz) February 3, 2023
State and native governments have gained again lower than 2/3rds of what they misplaced within the spring of 2022.
The hole in state & native jobs is a disaster, BUT IT DOESN’T HAVE TO BE. State & native governments can and should use their ARPA funds to lift pay and refill these jobs. 8/— Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz) February 3, 2023
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