Schedule for Week of November 27, 2022

by Calculated Threat on 11/26/2022 08:11:00 AM

The important thing report this week is the November employment report on Friday.

Different key indicators embody the 2nd estimate of Q3 GDP, the September Case-Shiller and FHFA home worth indexes, October Private Earnings & Outlays (and PCE), the November ISM manufacturing index, and November car gross sales.

Fed Chair Powell speaks on the financial outlook, inflation and the labor market on Thursday.

—– Monday, November twenty eighth —–

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Exercise for November. That is the final of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for November.

—– Tuesday, November twenty ninth —–

9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Value Index for September.

This graph exhibits graph exhibits the 12 months over yr change within the seasonally adjusted Nationwide Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes by the newest report (the Composite 20 was began in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 14.4% year-over-year improve within the Composite 20 index for September.

9:00 AM: FHFA Home Value Index for September. This was initially a GSE solely repeat gross sales, nevertheless there’s additionally an expanded index. The 2023 Conforming mortgage limits can even be introduced.

—– Wednesday, November thirtieth —–

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Affiliation (MBA) will launch the outcomes for the mortgage buy purposes index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for November. This report is for personal payrolls solely (no authorities).  The consensus is for 200,000 jobs added, down from 239,000 in October.

8:30 AM: Gross Home Product (Second Estimate) and Company Income (Preliminary), third Quarter 2022. The consensus is that actual GDP elevated 2.7% annualized in Q3, up from the advance estimate of two.6% in Q3.

9:45 AM: Chicago Buying Managers Index for November.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for October from the BLS.

This graph exhibits job openings (black line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and different (crimson column), and Quits (gentle blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings elevated in September to 10.717 million from 10.280 million in August.

10:00 AM: Pending Residence Gross sales Index for October. The consensus is for a 5.0% lower within the index.

1:30 PM: Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Financial Outlook, Inflation, and the Labor Market, On the Brookings Establishment, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue N.W., Washington, D.C.

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige E book, an off-the-cuff overview by the Federal Reserve Banks of present financial circumstances of their Districts.

10:30 AM: (doubtless) FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile, Third quarter.

—– Thursday, December 1st —–

8:30 AM: The preliminary weekly unemployment claims report will likely be launched.  The consensus is for 235 thousand preliminary claims, down from 240 thousand final week.

8:30 AM ET: Private Earnings and Outlays, October 2022. The consensus is for a 0.4% improve in private revenue, and for a 0.8% improve in private spending. And for the Core PCE worth index to extend 0.3%.  PCE costs are anticipated to be up 6.2% YoY, and core PCE costs up 5.0% YoY.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for November.  The consensus is for 50.0%, down from 50.2%.

10:00 AM: Building Spending for October.  The consensus is for 0.3% lower in spending.

Vehicle SalesAll day: Gentle car gross sales for November.

The consensus is for 14.9 million SAAR in November, unchanged from the BEA estimate of 14.9 million SAAR in October (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Fee).

This graph exhibits gentle car gross sales because the BEA began maintaining knowledge in 1967. The dashed line is the present gross sales fee.

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige E book, an off-the-cuff overview by the Federal Reserve Banks of present financial circumstances of their Districts.

—– Friday, December 2nd —–

Employment Recessions, Scariest Job Chart8:30 AM: Employment Report for October.   The consensus is for 200,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment fee to be unchanged at 3.7%.

There have been 261,000 jobs added in September, and the unemployment fee was at 3.7%.

This graph exhibits the job losses from the beginning of the employment recession, in share phrases.

The present employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in share phrases. Nevertheless, as of August, the entire jobs had returned and, as of September, had been 804 thousand above pre-pandemic ranges.