Weekly Macro Indicators and Nowcasts on the Eve of SVB

Deceleration was nonetheless in place, in response to the WEI.

 Determine 4: Lewis-Mertens-Inventory Weekly Financial Index (blue), OECD Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Financial Circumstances Index for US plus 2% pattern (inexperienced). Supply: NY Fed through FREDOECDWECI, and writer’s calculations.

Nonetheless, nowcasts and monitoring estimates had been indicating progress in Q1, albeit with some vast variation (and all implying a adverse output hole, taking the CBO estimate of potential as given).

Determine 2: GDP (daring black), GDPNow (purple sq.), S&P Market Perception (sky blue sq.), Goldman Sachs (gentle inexperienced triangle), Survey of Skilled Forecasters survey median forecast (blue line), all in bn.Ch.2012$ SAAR. Supply: BEA 2022Q4 2nd launch, Atlanta Fed, S&P World (3/17), Goldman Sachs (3/17), Philadelphia Fed SPF (February), CBO Price range and Financial Outlook (Feb. 2023), and writer’s calculations.

Q1 progress is constructive, however barely, starting from a low at 0.6% q/q SAAR from SPMI (previously Macro Advisers, previously IHS Markit), and a excessive of three.2%, from Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow. We are actually about 40 days from the advance 2023Q1 GDP launch. Traditionally, GDPNow has barely crushed (has a barely smaller RMSFE) than the Bloomberg consensus at this horizon. As of yesterday, that appears to be round 0.55% q/q SAAR.

Supply: Liz Ann Sonders, 17 March 2023.